Wall Street Starts Christmas Week in a Jolly Mood: Dec. 22, 2025

Risk-on sentiments are dominating Wall Street to begin the week of Christmas with investors raising equity, cryptocurrency and commodity exposures as we approach year-end. Gold and silver are especially buoyant, soaring to fresh records as geopolitical tensions spanning from Caracas to Kyiv motivate bids for the safe haven metals. Economic data starts to hit the wires tomorrow, but for now, traders are taking their cue from the general sense amongst participants that’s there’s little standing in the way for a Santa Claus rally to manifest. Stock prices are appreciating broadly with 8 out of the 11 major sectors advancing, while the defensive consumer staples and utilities segments get sold off alongside volatility protection instruments, which are seeing lessening premiums on the back of declining hedging demand amidst offensive attitudes. Real estate is the third equity category descending along with lumber, the critical construction material, as losses in Treasuries generate loftier mortgage debt servicing costs for prospective buyers and homebuilders alike. Climbing yields aren’t helping the greenback, though, which is getting battered on widening projections concerning central bank interest rate differentials, with many monetary authorities around the world, including Canada, Australia, the EU, Japan, etc., considering whether the next move should be a hike, effectively at odds with officials in Washington who are poised to deliver additional cuts. Elsewhere, forecast contracts are coming off a strong weekend, as prediction enthusiasts continue gravitating to daily high temperature themes across US cities.

ADP Data Could Bolster Rally

Tomorrow’s economic data may indicate stronger private sector hiring, as ADP’s new weekly indicator is scheduled for 8:15 AM ET. It provides the average amount of 7-day roster changes over the past four weeks and has been reaccelerating lately. Indeed, the four periods from Oct. 25 to Nov. 15 all printed payroll declines, but the last two have risen to 2.75k and 16.25k. A rebound in employment conditions could strengthen optimism regarding the current cycle’s momentum, dampen slowdown worries and bolster investor sentiment, driving stocks to fresh records, which are about 1% away on the Dow Jones, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices, and roughly 2.5% on the Nasdaq 100 benchmark. Another timely report on the buffet table will be December consumer confidence, which will be preceded by a series of stale prints delayed by the longest government shutdown in history. These reports will include third-quarter gross domestic product, industrial production and durable goods for October. The path of least resistance for risk assets is higher at this juncture, before earnings reports in January begin to test whether the returns from significant capital expenditures to amplify AI infrastructure justify the valuation expansion in equities.

International Roundup

Hong Kong Reports Stable Price Pressure

Hong Kong’s Composite CPI posted a 1.2% year-over-year (y/y) November result, which matched October’s print.

In a similar manner, the monthly rate of increases from September through November was 0.1%, unchanged from the comparable time span ended in October.

Categories with y/y price increases and the extent of the changes were as follows:

• Transport, 3.5%
• Alcoholic drinks and tobacco, 2.1%
• Miscellaneous services, 1.9%
• Housing, 1.6%
• Meals out and takeaway food, 1.3%,
• Miscellaneous goods, 1.3%
• Basic food, 0.7%

Conversely, stickers for the clothing and footwear group and durable goods category sank 4.1% and 3.3% while electricity, gas and water slipped 0.5%.

Goods Gate Prices Climb in Canada

Wholesale charges for manufactured products in Canada climbed 0.9% month over month (m/m) and 6.1% y/y in November, according to the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI). It was the sixth m/m increase. It followed October’s 1.7% m/m gain and surpassed the 0.3% economist consensus forecast. 

The following three categories accounted for the lion’s share of the m/m price pressures:

• Energy and petroleum products led the monthly print, gaining 4.3%, the strongest hike since last January. Within this category, diesel fuel and refined petroleum products became 7.9% and 4.8% more costly. Sanctions on Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of diesel fuel, allowed Canadian refiners to raise their prices and expand their margins.
• Separately, oilseed products contributed to the fruit, vegetables, feed and other food products group jumping 1.3% following October’s 1.8% movement in the same direction. China’s resumption of buying soybeans from the US caused prices for the item to climb.
• Primary non-ferrous metal products also contributed to the headline’s northward movement. Increased demand for non-wrought gold, silver and platinum items resulted in the category becoming 0.8% more expensive.

Regarding the y/y 6.1% result, 16 of 21 groups were more costly, but the ascent was primarily driven by unwrought gold, silver, and platinum metals spiking 58.7%. November was IPPI’s 14th consecutive y/y hike and hotter than October’s 5.7% rate of inflation.

Raw Material Inputs Also Became More Costly

Manufacturers dished out 0.3% more for raw materials on a m/m basis in November as depicted by the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI). A consensus of economists estimated that the metric would be up 0.6% following October’s 1.6% rate. The gauge was also up 6.4% y/y following October’s 5.8% result.

Within the m/m print, metal ores, concentrates and scrap increased 1.5% driven by the gold, silver, and platinum group metal ores and concentrates subcategory advancing 4%. Hogs were a drag on the headline, however, with a drop in production costs leading to an increase in supply.

UK Upgrades Third-Quarter Biz Investment

The UK has revised its third-quarter provisional business investment print from a 0.3% decline to a 1.5% gain. The positive q/q upgrade results from stronger capital allocations to information and communications technology, other machinery and equipment, and intellectual property products. The other buildings and structure category and transport equipment classification, however, declined. Relative to the third quarter of 2024, business investment is up 2.7%.